Free NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread For Every Game
I was always critical of anyone posting free picks from a “pro”, but I figure I have as much cred as anyone. I have been in the business for decades, bet on games and win money, so why not share my thoughts and picks on every game for this week? Obviously, I do not bet every game, but I wanted to cover the games that you want to see. So I am picking all of them and here are the free NFL week 12 pick against the spread.
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Buying on Buffalo
Is it me or is Jacksonville done? This team has given up on the season and the last second loss to Pittsburgh slammed the door shut. Now rumors of Jalen Ramsey traded in the off-season is going to tear this team apart. They have no reason to get excited to go to Buffalo in colder temps. For as bad as the Bills have been they do have some good wins this year.
Jack it up Jackson
The media is bating Lamar Jackson and it is going to work. They complained about how much he ran last week. They are suggesting that he is not a real QB because he does not throw. That will force him to throw more and he is not ready, just yet. Unfortunately the Raiders may not be able to take advantage of that because they are a horrible team. This is a game that should not be bet on but since the title of this article is free NFL week 12 picks against the spread for every game, I got to pick someone.
Winning With Winston
Coaching and bad defense is killing the Bucs. So it’s hard to think they will pull it together this week. Winston is the better player and they are at home against a team that has to travel coast to coast for an early start. Mullens has looked good for the 49ers, but he is still making mistakes. Not to mention that right now the 49ers have plenty of distractions.
The San Francisco 49ers are releasing Reuben Foster.
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) November 25, 2018
Don’t let the bye week make you think that the 49ers will be ready for this game, because they are 0-5 against the spread (ATS) after a bye week. Bucs win at home.
The Giants have their fans hopeful that they will somehow get into he post season. They are winning, but against some pretty bad teams. The Eagles are losing ugly, but to some of the best teams in the league. Trends will point toward to how poorly the Giants have played against the Eagles and this is a perfect example of bettors overreacting to the latest results. The Giants are getting crushed in the run game and that will let the Eagles to run the ball. Once they start running they will open up passing lanes and this game will get out of hand early. The Giants had trouble containing Carson Wentz and the passing game in the first meeting and it is only going to get worse this time around.
This game is a pick ‘em (pretty much) due to the fact that the Bengals have the worst defense in the NFL and they can’t stop anyone. They give up 20 points on the regular and have given up 31, 45 and 51 in some awful losses. In the last five games they have been outgained by an average of 236.5 yards per game. The Browns are so confident that they will win they are even talking smack in the media. The Browns are 9-3 ATS as divisional dogs of 3 points or less. AJ Green is banged up and may not play and the Bengals will lose again. Say goodbye to Marvin Lewis and his staff as Hue Jackson will become the first coach to get fired twice this year.
Pass on the Pats
The Jets announced that they are going to star Josh McCown under center against the Patriots. The Patriots are double digit favorites, which may seem like a gift considering that Tom Brady could have Rob Gronkowski back in the lineup this week. This is not the same Patriots offense that you have seen in the past. They are 7th in the league in scoring and Tom Brady ranks near the bottom in red zone offense when it comes to completion percentage. The Jets defense is motivated to win this game since the starters on defense are a combined 2-29 straight up against him. They won’t win, but the Jets can keep it close.
Colts Take on Tannehill
Ryan Tannehill is back for the Dolphins is back and the NFL spreads indicate that he is worth about three points to this team. The Colts opened at (-10) and now are (-7.5) at most sportsbooks. Tannehill is much better than Osweiller, but don’t look for a big win in this game. The Dolphins score less than 20 points per game and ranks 26th in the NFL. The Colts are playing great football and getting overlooked at the betting window. The Colts have not given up a sack in five games, but will start Evan Boehm under center for the injured Ryan Kelly. Boehm has not started a game since college, but he will have enough time to figure things out. The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 road games and they won’t be able to keep up with the Colts.
Laying With LA
This is another overreaction game and will be tough to watch. The Cardinals are having a bad season and just lost to the Raiders, so no one wants to bet on this team. Over 70 percent of the bets are on the Chargers giving two touchdowns in this game. That’s just too many. The Cardinals till have some talent on both sides of the ball and will play much better than they did a week ago. Josh Rosen gets the call under center and will get another chance to start building hopes in the future for this football team. They are last in average points per game, but that is a good sign when getting double digits. Since 2003, teams that average 20 or fewer points per game have gone 198-158-10 (55.5%) against the spread when getting double-digit points. The Chargers have no home field advantage and they are 1-4 ATS in the last five home games.
Problem with Pittsburgh
The Denver Broncos will win this game and they will make the playoffs. There is a great system in the NFL. Bet on home dogs after winning outright as road dogs. This is a letdown spot for the Steelers. They had a come from behind win over Jacksonville and will be playing the second straight game on the road for the first time this season. The sharp money is coming in on the Broncos as the line move is towards the home team although over 70 percent of the money is on the Steelers. The Steelers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against a team with a losing home record and 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Denver wins this game.
Remember the Vikings
The Vikings are an afterthought to many. The Packers are still getting over 70 percent of the bets in this game although they have not looked impressive all year long. The fade of the Vikings in this game may be attributed to the fact that he is 0-3 this year and 4-12 in his career in prime time. The Packers will be playing on the road for the second week in a row and for the fourth time in the last five weeks. Don’t think playing in a dome will help Aaron Rodgers and the Packers either. The Packers are just 4-8 straight up and 5-7 ATS in the last 12 games losing by an average of six points per game. The defense in those games allowed 30 or more points in seven of those games. Vikings HC Mike Zimmer knows how to control Rodgers and the Packers head coach is a lame duck at this point. The Packers are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 road games and the Vikings are 18-6 ATS at home against a team with a losing record. Vikings win big.
The Titans need a victory in the Monday night game at Houston if they want to make it to the playoffs and stay alive in the AFC South. Marcus Mariota is getting the call under center and that makes this offense better. People are betting on the record of late (and against the Titans) when they are betting on the Texans. Just one of the seven wins for the Texans came against a team that has a record above .500. This point spread is shooting up and going way too high. The Texans have too many technical errors and coaching mistakes that always keep teams involved in the game. The Texans are also just 1-5 ATS in the last 6 home games and an awful 2-10 ATS in the last 12 games on Monday night football. The Titans have an incredible red zone defense and they are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 games in the AFC South.