Joe Adams For ROY

Heading into the season, Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts and Robert Griffin III of the Washington Redskins will get all of the attention, but they will have an uphill battle to win the prestigious award.

Luck is playing with an awful team that is in the middle of a rebuilding season and RG3 is on a Redskins team that always find a way to mess things up.

Adams biggest hurdle in winning the award is history. It has been over a decade since a player has won Rookie of the Year that was drafted outside of the top 100, when rookie running back Mike Anderson (selected 189th) won the award in 2000 as a member of the Denver Broncos. Adams will have a chance to repeat the feat as one of the newest members of the Panthers.

Adams is an experienced wide out that completed his senior season with 54 catches and 652 yards, finding the end zone three times. Those numbers are not staggering by any means, but in this offense, Adams could make an immediate and long lasting impact.  

Adams will undoubtedly make the Panthers squad as the team is very thin at receiver. Legadu Naanee is no longer with the team after leaving for Miami and that leaves Steve Smith, Brandon LeFell, David Gettis and Seyi Ajirotutu to compete for the job. The Panthers usually keep a deep corps or receivers and Adams will fit in quite nicely.

Adams will benefit from the electrifying play of quarterback Cam Newton. Now in his second year under center, Newton will be able to utilize Adams as a slot receiver and draw attention away from All-Pro Steve Smith.

Smith will welcome a distraction as he demands double-teams on nearly every play. Smith will provide Adams with an excellent mentor that knows how to get the most out of his size and positioning. Adams is similar to Smith in stature and is a very smart player that will be willing to work and improve on his craft. Adams is flexible and can be utilized in many different ways on the offensive side of the ball.

Adams is explosive and can break the big play as evident in this play against Auburn. Adams Tears Up Auburn

In short Adams is a playmaker, and his biggest impact may be felt on special teams. Adams won the Johnny Rodgers Award last season, which is awarded to the top return man in college football. Armanti Edwards is a failed experiment as a return man and he averaged just over five yards per return a year ago. Adams is a perfect fit for this spot and early big returns will put his name on highlight reels on Sportscenter, especially if they are as good as the return he had against the Volunteers.

Tebow to the Jets is a mistake

The teams agreed to the terms of the trade — the Jets dealt fourth-round and sixth-round selections in 2012 in exchange for Tebow and a 2012 seventh-rounder from Denver, but now it may not happen. If it does not go through it is reported by ESPN that the St. Louis Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars may be in the running for Tebow. The jets would be better off letting him go.

The Jets would only bring in some serious trouble if they bring in Tebow.

First off, Tebow would not be happy because it is rumored that he wanted to return to Florida. It is also very clear that he would still want to play quarterback. That position is already filled in New York by Mark Sanchez. Jets new offensive coordinator Tony Soprano made the Wildcat offense a very popular offensive attack and he would love to get Tebow in the backfield.

Although it sounds like a perfect fit, Tebow will want to play quarterback full-time and he would have to face the scrutiny of the New York media.

This would crush Mark Sanchez. Sanchez would finally have pressure from a genuine threat waiting in the wings. The minute that Sanchez had a bad game, the fans would scream for Tebow to be under center. This would tear the locker room apart. The locker room is already torn apart and this would only make matters worse.

Finally could you imagine Tebow wincing in pain listening to Rex Ryan’s rants? It all adds up to a disaster. The latest reports from ESPN are that the Jaguars are back in the mix for Tebow, and Jets fans should only hope he goes to Jacksonville instead of New York.

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Manning to the Broncos

According to a report by ESPN, Peyton Manning is going to become the next quarterback of the Denver Broncos. The last hurdle to this deal is getting a contract worked out, but it’s obvious that the deal will be done.

While that is good news for the Broncos, it is bad news for Tim Tebow.

The Broncos are actively shopping Tebow and looking for anyone that may be interested.

After a glorious run to the playoffs a year ago, the much-talked about Tebow will inevitably be traded. The early rumors speculate that the Jacksonville Jaguars will be one of the teams in the mix with the Miami Dolphins next line. Several

dark horses with stable quarterbacks to include the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots are also rumored to take a look at Tebow, but there is one thing for sure. He will not be with the Denver Broncos next year.

Now the focus will be on Manning and the Broncos becoming the super bowl favorites. They are obviously the best team in a weak AFC West and will become the favorite to win that division. The Broncos are not done yet and they still have some money to bring in some more weapons for the veteran quarterback.

The latest odds on the Broncos going to the Super bowl are released on the popular sports betting site Bet Online and the Broncos have shot up the charts to become one of the big favorites this year. It is still yet to be seen what kind of impact that Manning will have on the Broncos, but one thing for sure, they will have a shot at winning a Super Bowl in 2013!

In the month of March the work place comes to a complete halt as sports fans ignore production and focus on the NCAA Tournament. It is estimated that approximately $7 billion is bet on this tournament, which surpasses the Super bowl.   College basketball junkies around the globe scour the internet for the latest stats, trends, and free picks in order to turn a buck in the Big Dance. With an inordinate amount of bets being placed on the tournament, this may be the best time to use consensus as a guide to selecting successful winners.

Betting against the public or using a consensus web site to bet on sports has gained popularity over the years. The theory is simple; the public always loses so betting against the public is the way to go.

Florida State Will Have Trouble

In sports betting there is no perfect system or angle that will deliver results, but with a little hard work it is possible to uncover angles that will produce the desired result. One of the more popular sports betting methods available to the public is a consensus, but many sports bettors do not know how to use it. They will blindly wager against the public without doing any homework. This can be a big mistake.

The consensus method can be part of a sports betting tool kit when used properly and it has a place in the NCAA Tournament. A combination of consensus and statistics is very useful when wagering on the NCAA tournament. In an attempt to keep it on a simple level and not overwhelm anyone with detailed statistical analysis, I decided to take a basic look at the second round of the tournament.

In the second round of the NCAA tournament, sports bettors have very little time to prepare with just three days between Selection Sunday and the start of the Big Dance. For this reason, several of the popular teams receive the majority of the bets. This is the trend again in 2012 as early percentages from a popular consensus site show that the top ranked teams are receiving heavy action early in the week.

On day one of the second round, No. 3 Baylor has over 82 percent of the public betting action against unknown South Dakota State and No. 1 seed Syracuse has 67 percent of the public backing over UNC Asheville. On day two of the tournament the trend continues to rear its ugly head with Michigan State (63%), Duke(84%), Georgetown (72%), Missouri (73%) and Florida State (85%) topping the charts. These numbers indicate the public is behind these teams, but to bet without research would be a mistake.  

It is widely known that the No. 1 seeds have never lost in the NCAA tournament and post an impressive 108-0 record. In fact over the last five years, all but one of the 20 meetings has resulted in blowouts with the favorite winning by an average of 29.6 points.  As could be predicted, these big wins resulted in the favorites covering the spread when it comes to the No. 1 seed.

During the 2011 NCAA Tournament, Pittsburgh (69%) covered the 18.5 point spread against UNC Asheville, Duke (77%) covered the 24.5 against Hampton, and Ohio State (67%) covered the 25.5 against University of Texas at San Antonio, with only Kansas (76%) failing to cover the closing line of 23.5 against Boston University. To get a better sample size, I expanded my research, only to uncover some fascinating results.

Ignoring consensus, I tracked the results against the spread for the top four seeds in the second round of the tournament over the last five years. All of the top four seeds in the tournament were favorites and with the exception of 2010, they delivered a profit in the second round. The top four seeds covered the number at a 60 percent clip with a nice 48-32 against the spread (ATS) record since 2007. This is an amazing number considering that the underdogs are always the big story in the tournament.  Although the results were impressive, the research was not complete; it was time to include the consensus.

All of the top four seeds in the tournament were favorites, but when it came to betting, the consensus numbers varied. So in order to separate the games from one another, I looked for the most popular games that were receiving over 80 percent of the wagers. Out of the 80 games researched only seven received over 80 percent of the wagers, but the results were staggering.  In seven games with over 80 percent of the betting action, the favorites were a miserable 1-6 ATS. This number is remarkable considering that favorites covered at 60 percent overall, but over games with over 80 percent that percentage plummeted to a rate of 14 percent! 

If the games receiving over 80 percent of the betting action are removed, the top four seeds would have covered at a profitable rate of 64 percent (47-26). Armed with this knowledge, it is time to apply it to the 2012 NCAA Tournament.

Marquette, North Carolina and Kentucky are waiting second round opponents, but out of the 13 teams that hold a four seed or higher, Baylor (83%) Duke (84%) and Florida State (85%) are over the 80 percent threshold. This would indicate that South Dakota State (+8.5), Lehigh (+12) and St. Bonaventure (+6.5) are preferable underdogs that are seriously worth a wager.

Using the consensus to bet on March Madness can be very profitable but only if it is used properly. Betting against the public in the first round would yield a negative return on investment, but finding the right time to bet would bring big profits. In the second round of the tournament bet against the teams that receive 80 percent or more of the public betting action.

When the tournament tips-off, the difference between winning and losing in NCAA basketball is doing your homework.

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The Big East made big news by getting nine teams into the tournament to include the defending champion Connecticut Huskies. The Huskies grabbed a nine seed and they will face a tough eight seed in the Iowa State Cyclones.

Iowa State vs. UConn

The Cyclones open their first NCAA Tournament since 2005 at 8:20 p.m. on Thursday (TBS) in the opening round of the South Regional in Louisville, Ky. UConn has never played Iowa State. It’s the first NCAA tournament bid in seven years for the Cyclones (22-10), who were knocked out of the Big 12 tournament by Texas.

Head coach Fred Hoiberg has rejuvenated the Cyclones program and they should provide the Huskies with a tough matchup. The Huskies have opened as 2.5 point favorites in this game and as expected, 67% of the early betting action is on the Big East team. Despite the early betting action, the Cyclones have a significant edge in this game.

The Cyclones are deadly from behind the arc and that has been a problem for the Huskies defense all season long and the Huskies head coach has reason to be concerned. Coach Jim Calhoun’s immediate concern Sunday was obvious.

“We haven’t played a team yet that shoots 36 3-pointers, and averages 24 a game,” he said. “They shoot at 39 percent. We don’t take 37 three’s in two weeks. “We will have to chase them off the arc.”

Iowa State’s 3-point shooting already has UConn’s attention. The Cyclones shoot 38 percent from 3-point range, something that has been an Achilles heel for Connecticut’s defense, which gives up more than seven 3-pointers a game.

The Cyclones are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog, and 5-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall. The Huskies are in over their head and will be exposed for the inconsistent team that they have become this year. The Cyclones will shoot themselves into the third round.

March Madness 2012 Pick Against the spread: Iowa State +2.5

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College basketball fans are now scrambling to fill out brackets in hopes of constructing the perfect bracket. The key to success in filling out a winning bracket is picking the upsets. Last year an eleventh seed went to the Final Four and if you were one of the lucky few to predict that outcome, you most likely won your bracket pool.

With that in mind, here are 25 bold predictions for your bracket and here is a pick against the spread in the second round.

 25) A No. 1 Seed will lose their first game

This is a bold upset considering a No. 1 seed has never lost in their opening outing in the NCAA tournament. However if there ever is a time for a monumental upset it’s this year.

Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan State, and Syracuse all received the prestigious No.1 seeds, but one of them will go home early.

24) Orange Crush Syracuse is on upset alert

Let’s get the biggest bold prediction out of the way early.

Syracuse will lose to UNC Asheville.

The Bulldogs enter this game against Syracuse with previous tournament experience, losing to Pittsburgh a year ago. They enter this season with a better RPI (105) and a better record (24-9) than the last time in the tournament.

Syracuse is the better team, but anything can happen once tournament play begins, and Asheville will be ready.

23) A play-in Team will win more than one game

Eight teams will compete in the first-round with an opportunity to jump into the main bracket. Mississippi Valley State, BYU, Iona, Western Kentucky, Lamar, Vermont, California, and South Florida will be involved in early in tournament action.

One of those teams will win two games and upset a higher seed along the way.

22) Iona will beat Marquette

Iona is the team that all of the experts are disrespecting for making the tournament. Many experts believed that Drexel or Northwestern should have received the invite over Iona.

That type of negative press can be used as motivation for a team in the tournament. Iona had 15 wins away from home and will be ready for tournament play.

Iona will win in the first round and in a stunning upset will take down Marquette in the second round. That type of marquee win will quiet all of the naysayers.

21) In the Second Round Nine Higher Seeds will advance

During the 2011 NCAA March Madness Tournament, seven teams with higher seeds won their game and advanced in upsets. This year that number will increase as the field is as even as it has ever been.

This tournament is entertaining to watch because every game is a potential upset and this year will be just as fun as the underdogs come to play.

20) West Virginia Will Beat Gonzaga

Gonzaga grabbed a seven seed in the tournament, but that came with a tough matchup against West Virginia. The Mountaineers have the size and the skills to match up against Gonzaga and this game will be played in Pittsburgh, which heavily favors West Virginia.

19) Three No. 5 seeds will fall in the second round

The No. 12 seed is notorious for pulling off the upset in tournament play over the years. Last year only one No. 12 seed advanced past the second round when Richmond defeated No. 5 Vanderbilt. All of the other No. 5 seeds advanced although the games were relatively close.

This year the No. 12 seed is very deadly and three of the four seeds will advance past the second round.

18) VCU is at it again

VCU was a Cinderella a year ago in the NCAA Tournament, and they are back for more. This year they are a 12 seed and they will face Wichita State in the first round.

With the experience from a year ago, VCU will advance and shock Wichita State.

17) Vanderbilt Second Round Problems

Vanderbilt entered the 2011 NCAA tournament as a five seed a year ago, only to be ejected by Richmond in an upset. Now they enter 2012 in a similar five spot, but this time they are SEC Champs.

Tommy Amaker has turned around the Harvard basketball program and will have his team ready for tournament play. Harvard is a very strong team and will beat Vanderbilt sending them out early once again.

 16) Long Beach State makes a Statement

The third team to advance as a No. 12 seed in the tournament is Long Beach State. Long Beach won the Big West Conference tournament title game to earn a spot against New Mexico.

Long Beach State has a senior filled team and they should have Larry Anderson back for this first round game and that will make them a formidable opponent. The 49ers will upset New Mexico and advance as a dangerous 12 seed.

15) The Big Ten Will not reach the Elite Eight

The Big Ten is one of the most talented conferences in the country this year, but the brackets are not kind.

The Big Ten sent Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan and Wisconsin to the NCAA Tournament and they all have challenging paths to the Elite Eight. With six teams representing the Big Ten they have potential, but when the dust clears, they will not make it to the Elite Eight.

14) Three Big Ten teams lose in the second round

I predicted the Big ten will not reach the Elite Eight and that is due to the fact that half of the field will be knocked out in the second round.

Wisconsin will fall victim to the deep-shooting talent in Montana and get ejected early. Indiana is another upset victim in the second round as they will lose to No. 13 New Mexico State and Purdue will not get by St. Mary’s.

13) Michigan State will Lose to Memphis

Michigan State is a very talented team and Tom Izzo is considered one of the best tournament coaches in college basketball history, but they will run into a very talented Memphis team.

Memphis is clicking on all cylinders right now and Will Barton is an underrated player that can take a game over. The Spartans are on upset alert and will not get by Memphis in the tournament.

12) Final Four Minus One

The Final Four will be without a No. 1 seed. This is not a precedent as last year the Final Four featured a quartet of talented teams without a No. 1 seed among them. In fact, only one No. 2 seed (Florida) made it to the Final Four.

This year the top teams will all be eliminated again leaving the tournament with a Cinderella team hoping to pull off the impossible.

11) A double digit Seed goes to the Final Four

Last year VCU stunned the college basketball world by going all the way to the Final Four as a No. 11 seed. That trend will continue this year as double digit seeds will go deeper in the tournament than normal.

Several teams have the potential to go deep to include VCU, Long Beach State, West Virginia, and North Carolina State.

10) Big East Disappoints

As usual the Big East is heavily represented in the NCAA Tournament. The Big East has sent nine teams to the Big Dance and they have a realistic shot of going deep into the brackets, but it won’t happen.

The Big East won the tournament last year with UConn but most of the teams in the conference get knocked out early. That will happen again this year.

9) Louisville Unlucky

Louisville won the Big East but did not get the best draw in the tournament. They start on the west coast against Davidson and if they are able to survive that contest, it only gets tougher.

If they beat Davidson they will face the winner of the Long Beach State or New Mexico and both teams will provide a very tough matchup for the Cardinals. Regardless of who they play, the Cardinals will not make it out of the opening weekend of the tournament.

Huskies One and Done

The UConn Huskies are the defending champions but are a much different team from a year ago. The Huskies get a tough draw against Iowa State and they will lose in a game that will not even be close.

The Huskies have a problem with defending the three point shot and that is a strong point for the Cyclones. Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg has this team headed in the right direction and it starts with a win over the Huskies.

7) ACC Best Conference in Tournament Play

The ACC will have the best showing in the NCAA Tournament. Out of all of the conferences in college basketball, the ACC will have the most teams in the Elite Eight. This is not really a bold prediction as North Carolina and Duke are top seeds, but considering the Big East has more teams, the ACC will hold its own.

Florida State Should Surprise

6) Florida State Will Go to the Elite Eight

Florida State enters the NCAA tournament on a roll and although they are in the same region as Syracuse and Ohio State they will make it to at least the Elite Eight.

Michael Snaer and the rest of the Seminoles are riding the momentum of winning the ACC conference title, similar to the run that UConn made a year ago. The Seminoles have a scrappy defense and a three-point accuracy that can lead them to a string of victories in the tournament.

5) No Double Digit Favorites Will Cover the Spread in the second round

The early lines in the NCAA tournament are starting to trickle out on selection Sunday.  Duke, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Missouri are just a few of the teams that are expected to cover double-digit point spreads.

All of the teams in the tournament are there for a reason and they will leave it all on the court in the second round of the tournament. For this reason all of the double digit chalk will fail to cover early in the tournament.

4) A Double-Digit Underdog will Win Outright

As previously mentioned the Big ten will struggle in this tournament and early losses are going to happen. One of those teams that will fail to make it out of the second round is the Wisconsin Badgers.

The early odds have the Badgers listed as ten point favorites in the opener against Montana. Montana has the players and the talent to win and players who back Montana on the money line will be rewarded with a big payday.

3) The West will have the most upsets

All of the regions have the potential for upsets, but none more than the West Region.

Michigan State is a weak No. 1 seed and could be evicted early. Florida is a dangerous seven seed and there are several other teams with the ability to pull off the upset and go deep in the tournament. This year’s VCU will come from this region.

2) Murray State Will Win the West

Murray State is not a Cinderella and many experts were surprised that they were only a six seed on Selection Sunday. The Racers are loaded with talent and have a winnable path to the Final Four. This is a team that was bounced in the first round of the NIT a year ago and will be out to prove that they deserve to be in the Big Dance.

1) The National Champion is

The Kansas Jayhawks.

Kansas could have easily been a No. 1 seed in this tournament and they will use that as motivation to make a run for the National Championship.

They will basically have home-court advantage throughout the tournament and have an excellent draw in the early rounds. Kansas has the talent and the easiest path to become national champions.

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The Colts have already announced that they will draft Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft. That only increases the odds of Manning wearing a different uniform in the future. With that being said, the speculation of where he will play next year is running rampant.

In fact several online sportsbooks have issued odds on where Manning will play next year.

Here is a look at the odds and a prediction of where he will fare best.

Perfect Fit: Washington Redskins                     5/2

Where will Manning Play Next Year?

This is a perfect fit for Manning. Daniel Snyder will spend the money and they can draft a quarterback to learn behind Manning. The Redskins have a good coach and a good running game that will help Manning. The Skins defense is admirable and they have potential. Going head-to-head against his little brother every year would help quiet the talk that Eli is the better quarterback.

2^nd Best Option: Indianapolis Colts                    7/1

Manning seems very flexible with his contract options and that could keep him in Indy for the rest of his career. He would be a good mentor for Luck, and the fans would not burn Lucas Oil stadium down if the colts let Manning walk.

3^rd Best Option: Miami Dolphins                       3/1

If he wanted to go outside the box the Dolphins might just work. Manning would have enough options on offense to make him happy and the defense has played well enough to make the Fins a contender with the aging signal caller. Playing Tom Brady twice a year would make for an interesting rivalry.

Not a Chance: Arizona Cardinals                       2/1

Some of the experts have the Cards as a viable option, but they have been down this road before. The Cards just dumped a ton of money on Kevin Kolb and are looking bad for it; don’t think they will do it again.

Wrong Team: New York Jets                                              7/2

The story of both Manning’s playing in New York is a great storyline, but would Peyton want to play for Rex Ryan? I doubt it. He is a defensive coach that loves to run the ball and has no problem throwing his quarterback under the bus.

Wherever the future hall-of-famer ends up it is sure to be the hot topic until he signs on the dotted line with an NFL team.

Where do you think Peyton Manning will play next year?

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Moments after the game was over, several online sportsbooks posted the odds to win Super Bowl XLVII.

Here is a look at some of the favorites to win it all in 2013, and a few

Green Bay PAckers are Favorites to Win Super Bowl 47

dark horses that may be worth a bet.

Green Bay Packers                              6/1

It should come as no surprise that the Green Bay Packers make this list and in fact they are favorites to win it all in 2013. As long as the Packers have Aaron Rodgers they will have a very potent offense and a chance to bring the Lombardi Trophy back home.

New England Patriots                          7/1

The Patriots may have lost Super Bowl XLVI, but they are on top of the heap to win it next year. Tom Brady is back and the Patriots have a slew of draft picks in the first two rounds that could add enough talent to put them over the top.

New Orleans Saints                              8/1

Drew Brees and the Bayou bad boys from New Orleans are at the top of the heap in 2013 to win the Super Bowl. Despite not winning a road playoff game the Saints have all the weapons to make a run at a championship, but you have to scroll down the list to find the defending champions.

New York Giants                   15/1

The Giants may have won the title this year, but they are not getting much respect from the oddsmakers and are already far down the charts. The odds of 15 to 1 look pretty tempting for a Giants team that will have most of their pieces back next year and only are looking to get stronger.

However if you are looking for a dark horse to put your money on that will have plenty of return here is a team that may be worth a look.

Carolina Panthers                                50/1

It may seem a bit risky but the reward is worth it. The Panthers have Cam Newton at quarterback and he guides a Panther offense that can score. The defense will only improve and they will return healthy players that can make them a dark horse to make the playoffs and then anything can happen.

Here are the remaining odds for the rest of the teams in the NFL to win Super Bowl XLVII, what teams do you think will win it all in 2013?