2013 NFL Week 4 Predictions: Sunday night Football New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons

2013 NFL Week 4 Predictions: Sunday night Football New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Sunday night football game features two of the best teams in the National Football League. The Atlanta Falcons will host the New England Patriots and at the start of the season both of these teams had Super Bowl expectations.  Entering week four, the Falcons have stumbled out of the game and can get back on track with an impressive win against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football.

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds

The opening NFL odds for this game were all over the place with some books posting Falcons (-1) and other posting a pick ‘em or Patriots (-1). Now that there has been betting all week long, this line has shifted to the Falcons (-1.5) as over 65 percent of the public is banking on the Falcons to rebound at home.  This line can now be found at Falcons (-1.5) at the top rated online sportsbook, BetOWI.com

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New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview

The Patriots have yet to lose a game, yet the public is all over the Falcons. One of the reasons they may be favoring the Falcons is because they play very well at home. Since 2008, the Falcons have posted a 34-7 record at the

Sunday Night Football Picks: Patriots vs Falcons
Sunday Night Football Picks: Patriots vs Falcons

Georgia Dome. The Falcons 34-7 record at home is the best mark in the NFC during that span and is the third best home record in the NFL over the last six seasons.

The Falcons have also devoured the AFC in recent years. Head coach Mike Smith’s record against the AFC during the regular season is 16-5. Also, Smith currently has a 8-4 record during the regular season for night games. However, this is a much different team that the Falcons have had in the past.

On offense they are having problems on the offensive line and injuries have devastated the weapons for Matt Ryan. Steven Jackson is out, but Ryan will have ROddy White back in the lineup although he will not be where he wants to be.

The Patriots are also hoping to have a weapon back on offense in the form of tight end Rob Gronkowski. Unfortunately the team and the talented tight end disagree on the prognosis for this weekend.

The Patriots are an underrated team.

They have started the season 3-0 and this is despite the fact that they have young players on offense that are still getting adjusted to the play book. Every week Tom Brady is making them better and better and he is getting some help from his defense.

The Patriots defense has looked pretty good up to this point. They are Second in points allowed (11.3 per game),tied for eighth in total defense (309 yards per game), tied for fifth in turnovers created (seven) sixth against the pass (188.3 yards per game) tied for eighth on third-down conversions allowed tied for 12th in red zone defense, and most impressively, they are the only NFL team to have allowed zero points in the fourth quarter.

The Falcons defense has been the opposite and they are trying to groom a very young squad. This is a squad that is weak in the secondary which will only benefit Tom Brady and Co. It doesn’t help that the Falcons now have a pair of undrafted free agent rookies (Joplo Bartu, Paul Worrilow) seeing extensive action at linebacker, joining a pair of early-round draft picks (Desmond Trufant, Robert Alford) in the secondary. The Falcons have also collapsed in the second half off football games this season. The Falcons have been outscored 48-24 in the second halves of their three games.

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons Trends

The latest NFL betting trends favor the Patriots in this game. The Patriots are 6-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last 6 games in Week 4 and 64-28-2 ATS in their last 94 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Falcons are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 home games against a team with a winning road record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons Predictions

The Falcons are a better team at home, but they are not the same team that they have been in the past. The line cannot protect Ryan and his weapons are not healthy. The defense is very young and vulnerable. Although the Falcons will bottle up the run the pass game should flourish under Brady. The Falcons will not be able to fix their problems in one week and the Patriots win on Sunday night football.

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons Pick Against the Spread

Patriots +1.5

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